DETIND
Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts
Any-day matchup, Colts at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Lions
60% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 60% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Lions can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Lions +7.0, Colts -8.0.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Lions about 2.8 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Lions rank 9th (+3.2), Colts 25th (-3.7).
- Turnover margin per game: Lions rank 8th (+0.5), Colts 32nd (-1.3).
- Lions passing game (1st in EPA) faces the Colts defense that ranks 15th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Lions may not
- Upset odds: Colts win 4,010 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Colts running game (5th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 20th against it.
- Home field: Colts play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Lions lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: Lions rank 32nd in explosive plays allowed per game (5.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -3 |
| Total points | n/a | 52.6 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · IND n/a | DET 60% · IND 40% |
| Fair moneyline | DET -149 · IND +149 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: IND 24, DET 27.
- 80% of simulations land between DET by 20 and IND by 14.
Side by side
| DET | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 2-5 |
| 30.7 2 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 27.5 26 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| +0.14 4 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 26 |
| +0.12 29 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 19 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | -1.3 32 |
| 7.5% 7 | Sacks per dropback | 5.8% 20 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-24 | 2024 Wk 12 | DET 24 @ IND 6 | DET | DET -7 |
| 2020-11-01 | 2020 Wk 8 | IND 41 @ DET 21 | IND | IND -3.5 |
| 2016-09-11 | 2016 Wk 1 | DET 39 @ IND 35 | DET | IND -2.5 |
| 2012-12-02 | 2012 Wk 13 | IND 35 @ DET 33 | IND | DET -7 |
| 2008-12-14 | 2008 Wk 15 | DET 21 @ IND 31 | IND | IND -16.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away