INDDET
Indianapolis Colts @ Detroit Lions
Any-day matchup, Lions at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Lions
68% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 68% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Lions can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Lions +7.0, Colts -8.0.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Lions about 2.7 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Lions rank 9th (+3.2), Colts 25th (-3.7).
- Simulation: Lions win 6,770 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnover margin per game: Lions rank 8th (+0.5), Colts 32nd (-1.3).
Disadvantages Why the Lions may not
- Colts running game (5th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 20th against it.
- Upset odds: Colts win 3,230 of 10,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Lions lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: Lions rank 32nd in explosive plays allowed per game (5.7).
- Weak spot: Lions rank 29th in defense, EPA per play allowed (+0.12).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -6.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 52.6 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · DET n/a | IND 32% · DET 68% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +210 · DET -210 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DET 29, IND 23.
- 80% of simulations land between IND by 10 and DET by 23.
Side by side
| IND | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-2 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 30.7 2 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 27.5 26 |
| -0.06 26 | Offense EPA/play | +0.14 4 |
| +0.03 19 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 29 |
| -1.3 32 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 5.8% 20 | Sacks per dropback | 7.5% 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-24 | 2024 Wk 12 | DET 24 @ IND 6 | DET | DET -7 |
| 2020-11-01 | 2020 Wk 8 | IND 41 @ DET 21 | IND | IND -3.5 |
| 2016-09-11 | 2016 Wk 1 | DET 39 @ IND 35 | DET | IND -2.5 |
| 2012-12-02 | 2012 Wk 13 | IND 35 @ DET 33 | IND | DET -7 |
| 2008-12-14 | 2008 Wk 15 | DET 21 @ IND 31 | IND | IND -16.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away