DETJAX
Detroit Lions @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Any-day matchup, Jaguars at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
61% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 61% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Jaguars passing game (4th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Simulation: Jaguars win 6,090 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Jaguars play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Jaguars running game (9th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 20th against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.0 points to Jaguars in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Lions passing game (1st in EPA) faces the Jaguars defense that ranks 13th against it.
- Upset odds: Lions win 3,910 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Lions rank 7th (7.5%), Jaguars 24th (4.5%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 13 or more.
- History: Lions won 5 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | JAX -3.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 52.3 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · JAX n/a | DET 39% · JAX 61% |
| Fair moneyline | DET +156 · JAX -156 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: JAX 27, DET 24.
- 80% of simulations land between DET by 13 and JAX by 20.
Side by side
| DET | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 4-2 |
| 30.7 2 | Points per game | 25.7 8 |
| 27.5 26 | Points allowed | 17.3 3 |
| +0.14 4 | Offense EPA/play | +0.15 3 |
| +0.12 29 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 11 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 7.5% 7 | Sacks per dropback | 4.5% 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-17 | 2024 Wk 11 | JAX 6 @ DET 52 | DET | DET -14 |
| 2022-12-04 | 2022 Wk 13 | JAX 14 @ DET 40 | DET | DET -1 |
| 2020-10-18 | 2020 Wk 6 | DET 34 @ JAX 16 | DET | DET -3 |
| 2016-11-20 | 2016 Wk 11 | JAX 19 @ DET 26 | DET | DET -5.5 |
| 2012-11-04 | 2012 Wk 9 | DET 31 @ JAX 14 | DET | DET -6 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away