JAXDET
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions
Any-day matchup, Lions at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
51% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 51% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Jaguars passing game (4th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Simulation: Jaguars win 5,100 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.1 points to Jaguars in our ratings.
- Jaguars running game (9th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 20th against it.
- Point differential per game: Jaguars rank 2nd (+8.3), Lions 9th (+3.2).
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Upset odds: Lions win 4,900 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Lions passing game (1st in EPA) faces the Jaguars defense that ranks 13th against it.
- Home field: Lions play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Lions rank 7th (7.5%), Jaguars 24th (4.5%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 17 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | Pick'em |
| Total points | n/a | 52.3 |
| Win chance | JAX n/a · DET n/a | JAX 51% · DET 49% |
| Fair moneyline | JAX -104 · DET +104 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DET 26, JAX 26.
- 80% of simulations land between JAX by 17 and DET by 17.
Side by side
| JAX | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 4-2 |
| 25.7 8 | Points per game | 30.7 2 |
| 17.3 3 | Points allowed | 27.5 26 |
| +0.15 3 | Offense EPA/play | +0.14 4 |
| -0.03 11 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 29 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 4.5% 24 | Sacks per dropback | 7.5% 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-17 | 2024 Wk 11 | JAX 6 @ DET 52 | DET | DET -14 |
| 2022-12-04 | 2022 Wk 13 | JAX 14 @ DET 40 | DET | DET -1 |
| 2020-10-18 | 2020 Wk 6 | DET 34 @ JAX 16 | DET | DET -3 |
| 2016-11-20 | 2016 Wk 11 | JAX 19 @ DET 26 | DET | DET -5.5 |
| 2012-11-04 | 2012 Wk 9 | DET 31 @ JAX 14 | DET | DET -6 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away