DETLA
Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Rams
Any-day matchup, Rams at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
61% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 61% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Rams passing game (12th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Simulation: Rams win 6,070 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Travel: Lions cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Rams play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 0.9 points stronger.
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Turnover margin per game: Lions rank 8th (+0.5), Rams 29th (-0.7).
- Upset odds: Lions win 3,930 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Lions rank 7th (7.5%), Rams 27th (4.2%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Rams lose by 13 or more.
- Field goal percentage: Lions rank 1st (100.0%), Rams 32nd (60.0%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -3.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 53.8 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · LA n/a | DET 39% · LA 61% |
| Fair moneyline | DET +154 · LA -154 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LA 28, DET 24.
- 80% of simulations land between DET by 13 and LA by 21.
Side by side
| DET | LA | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 3-4 |
| 30.7 2 | Points per game | 24.3 11 |
| 27.5 26 | Points allowed | 22.7 16 |
| +0.14 4 | Offense EPA/play | +0.06 10 |
| +0.12 29 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 5 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | -0.7 29 |
| 7.5% 7 | Sacks per dropback | 4.2% 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | 2025 Wk 15 | DET 34 @ LA 41 | LA | LA -5.5 |
| 2024-09-08 | 2024 Wk 1 | LA 20 @ DET 26 | DET | DET -5 |
| 2024-01-14 | 2023 Wild Card | LA 23 @ DET 24 | DET | DET -3.5 |
| 2021-10-24 | 2021 Wk 7 | DET 19 @ LA 28 | LA | LA -17 |
| 2018-12-02 | 2018 Wk 13 | LA 30 @ DET 16 | LA | LA -10.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away