LADET
Los Angeles Rams @ Detroit Lions
Any-day matchup, Lions at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
52% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 52% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Rams passing game (12th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Simulation: Rams win 5,190 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 1.0 points stronger.
- Rams running game (11th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 20th against it.
- Efficiency (EPA per play): worth about 0.4 points to Rams in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Upset odds: Lions win 4,810 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Lions rank 8th (+0.5), Rams 29th (-0.7).
- Travel: Rams cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Lions play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Lions rank 7th (7.5%), Rams 27th (4.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -0.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 53.8 |
| Win chance | LA n/a · DET n/a | LA 52% · DET 48% |
| Fair moneyline | LA -108 · DET +108 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DET 27, LA 27.
- 80% of simulations land between LA by 17 and DET by 17.
Side by side
| LA | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 4-2 |
| 24.3 11 | Points per game | 30.7 2 |
| 22.7 16 | Points allowed | 27.5 26 |
| +0.06 10 | Offense EPA/play | +0.14 4 |
| -0.06 5 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 29 |
| -0.7 29 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 4.2% 27 | Sacks per dropback | 7.5% 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | 2025 Wk 15 | DET 34 @ LA 41 | LA | LA -5.5 |
| 2024-09-08 | 2024 Wk 1 | LA 20 @ DET 26 | DET | DET -5 |
| 2024-01-14 | 2023 Wild Card | LA 23 @ DET 24 | DET | DET -3.5 |
| 2021-10-24 | 2021 Wk 7 | DET 19 @ LA 28 | LA | LA -17 |
| 2018-12-02 | 2018 Wk 13 | LA 30 @ DET 16 | LA | LA -10.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away