DETLV
Detroit Lions @ Las Vegas Raiders
Any-day matchup, Raiders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Lions
65% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 65% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Lions can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Lions about 4.2 points stronger.
- Lions passing game (1st in EPA) faces the Raiders defense that ranks 27th against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Lions +7.0, Raiders -15.0.
- Simulation: Lions win 6,490 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Lions rank 9th (+3.2), Raiders 23rd (-2.0).
Disadvantages Why the Lions may not
- Raiders passing game (9th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Upset odds: Raiders win 3,510 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Travel: Lions cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Raiders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Lions lose by 12 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -4.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 53.4 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · LV n/a | DET 65% · LV 35% |
| Fair moneyline | DET -185 · LV +185 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LV 24, DET 29.
- 80% of simulations land between DET by 21 and LV by 12.
Side by side
| DET | LV | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 3-4 |
| 30.7 2 | Points per game | 26.1 6 |
| 27.5 26 | Points allowed | 28.1 29 |
| +0.14 4 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 18 |
| +0.12 29 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.06 24 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 7.5% 7 | Sacks per dropback | 6.7% 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-30 | 2023 Wk 8 | LV 14 @ DET 26 | DET | DET -7 |
| 2019-11-03 | 2019 Wk 9 | DET 24 @ LV 31 | LV | LV -2.5 |
| 2015-11-22 | 2015 Wk 11 | LV 13 @ DET 18 | DET | LV -2 |
| 2011-12-18 | 2011 Wk 15 | DET 28 @ LV 27 | DET | DET -1 |
| 2007-09-09 | 2007 Wk 1 | DET 36 @ LV 21 | DET | LV -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away