LVDET
Las Vegas Raiders @ Detroit Lions
Any-day matchup, Lions at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Lions
73% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 73% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Lions can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Lions about 4.2 points stronger.
- Lions passing game (1st in EPA) faces the Raiders defense that ranks 27th against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Lions +7.0, Raiders -15.0.
- Simulation: Lions win 7,260 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Lions rank 9th (+3.2), Raiders 23rd (-2.0).
Disadvantages Why the Lions may not
- Raiders passing game (9th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Upset odds: Raiders win 2,740 of 10,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Lions lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: Lions rank 32nd in explosive plays allowed per game (5.7).
- Weak spot: Lions rank 29th in defense, EPA per play allowed (+0.12).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -7.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 53.4 |
| Win chance | LV n/a · DET n/a | LV 27% · DET 73% |
| Fair moneyline | LV +265 · DET -265 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DET 30, LV 23.
- 80% of simulations land between LV by 8 and DET by 24.
Side by side
| LV | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 4-2 |
| 26.1 6 | Points per game | 30.7 2 |
| 28.1 29 | Points allowed | 27.5 26 |
| -0.01 18 | Offense EPA/play | +0.14 4 |
| +0.06 24 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 29 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 6.7% 15 | Sacks per dropback | 7.5% 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-30 | 2023 Wk 8 | LV 14 @ DET 26 | DET | DET -7 |
| 2019-11-03 | 2019 Wk 9 | DET 24 @ LV 31 | LV | LV -2.5 |
| 2015-11-22 | 2015 Wk 11 | LV 13 @ DET 18 | DET | LV -2 |
| 2011-12-18 | 2011 Wk 15 | DET 28 @ LV 27 | DET | DET -1 |
| 2007-09-09 | 2007 Wk 1 | DET 36 @ LV 21 | DET | LV -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away