DETMIA
Detroit Lions @ Miami Dolphins
Any-day matchup, Dolphins at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Lions
74% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 74% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Lions can win
- Lions passing game (1st in EPA) faces the Dolphins defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Lions about 6.0 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Lions rank 9th (+3.2), Dolphins 31st (-9.8).
- Simulation: Lions win 7,450 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.4 points to Lions in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Lions may not
- Home field: Dolphins play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Dolphins running game (7th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 20th against it.
- Upset odds: Dolphins win 2,550 of 10,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Lions lose by 9 or more.
- Weak spot: Lions rank 32nd in explosive plays allowed per game (5.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -7.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.2 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · MIA n/a | DET 74% · MIA 26% |
| Fair moneyline | DET -292 · MIA +292 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIA 21, DET 28.
- 80% of simulations land between DET by 24 and MIA by 9.
Side by side
| DET | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 1-5 |
| 30.7 2 | Points per game | 16.3 30 |
| 27.5 26 | Points allowed | 26.2 25 |
| +0.14 4 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 21 |
| +0.12 29 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 30 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 7.5% 7 | Sacks per dropback | 3.3% 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-30 | 2022 Wk 8 | MIA 31 @ DET 27 | MIA | MIA -3.5 |
| 2018-10-21 | 2018 Wk 7 | DET 32 @ MIA 21 | DET | DET -3 |
| 2014-11-09 | 2014 Wk 10 | MIA 16 @ DET 20 | DET | DET -3 |
| 2010-12-26 | 2010 Wk 16 | DET 34 @ MIA 27 | DET | MIA -3.5 |
| 2006-11-23 | 2006 Wk 12 | MIA 27 @ DET 10 | MIA | MIA -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away