MIADET
Miami Dolphins @ Detroit Lions
Any-day matchup, Lions at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Lions
81% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 81% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Lions can win
- Lions passing game (1st in EPA) faces the Dolphins defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Lions about 5.9 points stronger.
- Simulation: Lions win 8,130 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Lions rank 9th (+3.2), Dolphins 31st (-9.8).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.3 points to Lions in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Lions may not
- Dolphins running game (7th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 20th against it.
- Upset odds: Dolphins win 1,870 of 10,000 simulations (19%). A 81% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Lions lose by 6 or more.
- Weak spot: Lions rank 32nd in explosive plays allowed per game (5.7).
- Weak spot: Lions rank 29th in defense, EPA per play allowed (+0.12).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -10.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.2 |
| Win chance | MIA n/a · DET n/a | MIA 19% · DET 81% |
| Fair moneyline | MIA +436 · DET -436 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DET 30, MIA 20.
- 80% of simulations land between MIA by 6 and DET by 28.
Side by side
| MIA | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | Record | 4-2 |
| 16.3 30 | Points per game | 30.7 2 |
| 26.2 25 | Points allowed | 27.5 26 |
| -0.04 21 | Offense EPA/play | +0.14 4 |
| +0.12 30 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 29 |
| -0.5 26 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 3.3% 30 | Sacks per dropback | 7.5% 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-30 | 2022 Wk 8 | MIA 31 @ DET 27 | MIA | MIA -3.5 |
| 2018-10-21 | 2018 Wk 7 | DET 32 @ MIA 21 | DET | DET -3 |
| 2014-11-09 | 2014 Wk 10 | MIA 16 @ DET 20 | DET | DET -3 |
| 2010-12-26 | 2010 Wk 16 | DET 34 @ MIA 27 | DET | MIA -3.5 |
| 2006-11-23 | 2006 Wk 12 | MIA 27 @ DET 10 | MIA | MIA -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away