DETNE
Detroit Lions @ New England Patriots
Any-day matchup, Patriots at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NENew England Patriots
53% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 53% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Patriots can win
- Patriots passing game (7th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Home field: Patriots play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Patriots win 5,300 of 10,000 simulated games.
- History: Patriots won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.4 points to Patriots in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Patriots may not
- Lions passing game (1st in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 22nd against it.
- Turnover margin per game: Lions rank 8th (+0.5), Patriots 31st (-1.0).
- Upset odds: Lions win 4,700 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Lions about 1.3 points stronger.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Patriots lose by 15 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NE -1 |
| Total points | n/a | 52.1 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · NE n/a | DET 47% · NE 53% |
| Fair moneyline | DET +113 · NE -113 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NE 27, DET 25.
- 80% of simulations land between DET by 15 and NE by 17.
Side by side
| DET | NE | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 4-3 |
| 30.7 2 | Points per game | 22.9 19 |
| 27.5 26 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| +0.14 4 | Offense EPA/play | +0.07 9 |
| +0.12 29 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 20 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | -1.0 31 |
| 7.5% 7 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 13 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 2022 Wk 5 | DET 0 @ NE 29 | NE | NE -3 |
| 2018-09-23 | 2018 Wk 3 | NE 10 @ DET 26 | DET | NE -7 |
| 2014-11-23 | 2014 Wk 12 | DET 9 @ NE 34 | NE | NE -7.5 |
| 2010-11-25 | 2010 Wk 12 | NE 45 @ DET 24 | NE | NE -6 |
| 2006-12-03 | 2006 Wk 13 | DET 21 @ NE 28 | NE | NE -13 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away