NEDET
New England Patriots @ Detroit Lions
Any-day matchup, Lions at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Lions
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Lions can win
- Lions passing game (1st in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 22nd against it.
- Turnover margin per game: Lions rank 8th (+0.5), Patriots 31st (-1.0).
- Simulation: Lions win 5,590 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Lions about 1.2 points stronger.
- Home field: Lions play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Lions may not
- Patriots passing game (7th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Upset odds: Patriots win 4,410 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Lions lose by 14 or more.
- History: Patriots won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Weak spot: Lions rank 32nd in explosive plays allowed per game (5.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -2.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 52.1 |
| Win chance | NE n/a · DET n/a | NE 44% · DET 56% |
| Fair moneyline | NE +127 · DET -127 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DET 27, NE 24.
- 80% of simulations land between NE by 14 and DET by 19.
Side by side
| NE | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 4-2 |
| 22.9 19 | Points per game | 30.7 2 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 27.5 26 |
| +0.07 9 | Offense EPA/play | +0.14 4 |
| +0.03 20 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 29 |
| -1.0 31 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 7.0% 13 | Sacks per dropback | 7.5% 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 2022 Wk 5 | DET 0 @ NE 29 | NE | NE -3 |
| 2018-09-23 | 2018 Wk 3 | NE 10 @ DET 26 | DET | NE -7 |
| 2014-11-23 | 2014 Wk 12 | DET 9 @ NE 34 | NE | NE -7.5 |
| 2010-11-25 | 2010 Wk 12 | NE 45 @ DET 24 | NE | NE -6 |
| 2006-12-03 | 2006 Wk 13 | DET 21 @ NE 28 | NE | NE -13 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away