DETNO
Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints
Any-day matchup, Saints at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Lions
65% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 65% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Lions can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Lions about 3.7 points stronger.
- Lions passing game (1st in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 23rd against it.
- Point differential per game: Lions rank 9th (+3.2), Saints 26th (-4.6).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Lions +7.0, Saints -3.0.
- Simulation: Lions win 6,500 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Lions may not
- Upset odds: Saints win 3,500 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Saints play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Saints passing game (20th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Lions lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: Lions rank 32nd in explosive plays allowed per game (5.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -4.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 52.4 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · NO n/a | DET 65% · NO 35% |
| Fair moneyline | DET -186 · NO +186 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NO 24, DET 27.
- 80% of simulations land between DET by 21 and NO by 12.
Side by side
| DET | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 2-5 |
| 30.7 2 | Points per game | 23.1 17 |
| 27.5 26 | Points allowed | 27.7 28 |
| +0.14 4 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 19 |
| +0.12 29 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 26 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | -0.6 28 |
| 7.5% 7 | Sacks per dropback | 7.3% 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | 2026 Wk 1 | NO 30 @ DET 31 | DET | DET -7 |
| 2023-12-03 | 2023 Wk 13 | DET 33 @ NO 28 | DET | DET -4 |
| 2020-10-04 | 2020 Wk 4 | NO 35 @ DET 29 | NO | NO -3 |
| 2017-10-15 | 2017 Wk 6 | DET 38 @ NO 52 | NO | NO -6 |
| 2016-12-04 | 2016 Wk 13 | DET 28 @ NO 13 | DET | NO -6.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away