NODET
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions
Any-day matchup, Lions at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Lions
72% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 72% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Lions can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Lions about 3.6 points stronger.
- Lions passing game (1st in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 23rd against it.
- Simulation: Lions win 7,210 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Lions rank 9th (+3.2), Saints 26th (-4.6).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Lions +7.0, Saints -3.0.
Disadvantages Why the Lions may not
- Saints passing game (20th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Upset odds: Saints win 2,790 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Lions lose by 9 or more.
- Weak spot: Lions rank 32nd in explosive plays allowed per game (5.7).
- Weak spot: Lions rank 29th in defense, EPA per play allowed (+0.12).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -7.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 52.4 |
| Win chance | NO n/a · DET n/a | NO 28% · DET 72% |
| Fair moneyline | NO +258 · DET -258 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DET 30, NO 23.
- 80% of simulations land between NO by 9 and DET by 24.
Side by side
| NO | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-2 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 30.7 2 |
| 27.7 28 | Points allowed | 27.5 26 |
| -0.03 19 | Offense EPA/play | +0.14 4 |
| +0.08 26 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 29 |
| -0.6 28 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 7.3% 10 | Sacks per dropback | 7.5% 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | 2026 Wk 1 | NO 30 @ DET 31 | DET | DET -7 |
| 2023-12-03 | 2023 Wk 13 | DET 33 @ NO 28 | DET | DET -4 |
| 2020-10-04 | 2020 Wk 4 | NO 35 @ DET 29 | NO | NO -3 |
| 2017-10-15 | 2017 Wk 6 | DET 38 @ NO 52 | NO | NO -6 |
| 2016-12-04 | 2016 Wk 13 | DET 28 @ NO 13 | DET | NO -6.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away