DETNYJ
Detroit Lions @ New York Jets
Any-day matchup, Jets at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Lions
66% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 66% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Lions can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Lions about 4.4 points stronger.
- Lions passing game (1st in EPA) faces the Jets defense that ranks 20th against it.
- Simulation: Lions win 6,550 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Lions +7.0, Jets -1.7.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to Lions in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Lions may not
- Jets passing game (13th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Upset odds: Jets win 3,450 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Home field: Jets play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Lions lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: Lions rank 32nd in explosive plays allowed per game (5.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -4.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.9 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · NYJ n/a | DET 66% · NYJ 34% |
| Fair moneyline | DET -189 · NYJ +189 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYJ 23, DET 27.
- 80% of simulations land between DET by 21 and NYJ by 12.
Side by side
| DET | NYJ | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 2-5 |
| 30.7 2 | Points per game | 19.6 27 |
| 27.5 26 | Points allowed | 21.4 13 |
| +0.14 4 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 15 |
| +0.12 29 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.01 14 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 7.5% 7 | Sacks per dropback | 8.2% 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | 2026 Wk 3 | NYJ 24 @ DET 31 | DET | DET -7 |
| 2022-12-18 | 2022 Wk 15 | DET 20 @ NYJ 17 | DET | NYJ -2 |
| 2018-09-10 | 2018 Wk 1 | NYJ 48 @ DET 17 | NYJ | DET -7 |
| 2014-09-28 | 2014 Wk 4 | DET 24 @ NYJ 17 | DET | NYJ -2 |
| 2010-11-07 | 2010 Wk 9 | NYJ 23 @ DET 20 | NYJ | NYJ -5.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away