NYJDET
New York Jets @ Detroit Lions
Any-day matchup, Lions at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Lions
74% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 74% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Lions can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Lions about 4.3 points stronger.
- Lions passing game (1st in EPA) faces the Jets defense that ranks 20th against it.
- Simulation: Lions win 7,410 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Lions +7.0, Jets -1.7.
- Point differential per game: Lions rank 9th (+3.2), Jets 21st (-1.9).
Disadvantages Why the Lions may not
- Jets passing game (13th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Upset odds: Jets win 2,590 of 10,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Lions lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: Lions rank 32nd in explosive plays allowed per game (5.7).
- Weak spot: Lions rank 29th in defense, EPA per play allowed (+0.12).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -7.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.9 |
| Win chance | NYJ n/a · DET n/a | NYJ 26% · DET 74% |
| Fair moneyline | NYJ +286 · DET -286 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DET 28, NYJ 21.
- 80% of simulations land between NYJ by 8 and DET by 25.
Side by side
| NYJ | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-2 |
| 19.6 27 | Points per game | 30.7 2 |
| 21.4 13 | Points allowed | 27.5 26 |
| +0.00 15 | Offense EPA/play | +0.14 4 |
| -0.01 14 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 29 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 8.2% 4 | Sacks per dropback | 7.5% 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | 2026 Wk 3 | NYJ 24 @ DET 31 | DET | DET -7 |
| 2022-12-18 | 2022 Wk 15 | DET 20 @ NYJ 17 | DET | NYJ -2 |
| 2018-09-10 | 2018 Wk 1 | NYJ 48 @ DET 17 | NYJ | DET -7 |
| 2014-09-28 | 2014 Wk 4 | DET 24 @ NYJ 17 | DET | NYJ -2 |
| 2010-11-07 | 2010 Wk 9 | NYJ 23 @ DET 20 | NYJ | NYJ -5.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away