DETSEA
Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks
Any-day matchup, Seahawks at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
64% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 64% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Simulation: Seahawks win 6,440 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Seahawks passing game (17th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Travel: Lions cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Seahawks play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.1 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Upset odds: Lions win 3,560 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
- Turnover margin per game: Lions rank 8th (+0.5), Seahawks 18th (-0.1).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Seahawks lose by 11 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -4.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 50 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · SEA n/a | DET 36% · SEA 64% |
| Fair moneyline | DET +181 · SEA -181 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SEA 27, DET 23.
- 80% of simulations land between DET by 11 and SEA by 21.
Side by side
| DET | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 4-3 |
| 30.7 2 | Points per game | 24.0 13 |
| 27.5 26 | Points allowed | 17.9 4 |
| +0.14 4 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 24 |
| +0.12 29 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.13 2 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 7.5% 7 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-30 | 2024 Wk 4 | SEA 29 @ DET 42 | DET | DET -3.5 |
| 2023-09-17 | 2023 Wk 2 | SEA 37 @ DET 31 | SEA | DET -4.5 |
| 2022-10-02 | 2022 Wk 4 | SEA 48 @ DET 45 | SEA | DET -3 |
| 2022-01-02 | 2021 Wk 17 | DET 29 @ SEA 51 | SEA | SEA -8.5 |
| 2018-10-28 | 2018 Wk 8 | SEA 28 @ DET 14 | SEA | DET -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away