SEADET
Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions
Any-day matchup, Lions at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
54% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 54% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Seahawks passing game (17th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Simulation: Seahawks win 5,430 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.1 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 1.0 points stronger.
- History: Seahawks won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Upset odds: Lions win 4,570 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Travel: Seahawks cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Lions play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -1.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 50 |
| Win chance | SEA n/a · DET n/a | SEA 54% · DET 46% |
| Fair moneyline | SEA -119 · DET +119 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DET 24, SEA 26.
- 80% of simulations land between SEA by 18 and DET by 15.
Side by side
| SEA | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 4-2 |
| 24.0 13 | Points per game | 30.7 2 |
| 17.9 4 | Points allowed | 27.5 26 |
| -0.05 24 | Offense EPA/play | +0.14 4 |
| -0.13 2 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 29 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 7.4% 8 | Sacks per dropback | 7.5% 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-30 | 2024 Wk 4 | SEA 29 @ DET 42 | DET | DET -3.5 |
| 2023-09-17 | 2023 Wk 2 | SEA 37 @ DET 31 | SEA | DET -4.5 |
| 2022-10-02 | 2022 Wk 4 | SEA 48 @ DET 45 | SEA | DET -3 |
| 2022-01-02 | 2021 Wk 17 | DET 29 @ SEA 51 | SEA | SEA -8.5 |
| 2018-10-28 | 2018 Wk 8 | SEA 28 @ DET 14 | SEA | DET -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away