DETTEN
Detroit Lions @ Tennessee Titans
Any-day matchup, Titans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Lions
75% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 75% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Lions can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Lions about 6.1 points stronger.
- Lions passing game (1st in EPA) faces the Titans defense that ranks 25th against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Lions +7.0, Titans -6.7.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.6 points to Lions in our ratings.
- Simulation: Lions win 7,520 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Lions may not
- Home field: Titans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Titans win 2,480 of 10,000 simulations (25%). A 75% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Lions lose by 8 or more.
- History: Titans won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Weak spot: Lions rank 32nd in explosive plays allowed per game (5.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -7.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.7 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · TEN n/a | DET 75% · TEN 25% |
| Fair moneyline | DET -303 · TEN +303 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TEN 20, DET 27.
- 80% of simulations land between DET by 25 and TEN by 8.
Side by side
| DET | TEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 1-6 |
| 30.7 2 | Points per game | 15.4 31 |
| 27.5 26 | Points allowed | 22.3 15 |
| +0.14 4 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 31 |
| +0.12 29 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 22 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 7.5% 7 | Sacks per dropback | 7.1% 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-27 | 2024 Wk 8 | TEN 14 @ DET 52 | DET | DET -12.5 |
| 2020-12-20 | 2020 Wk 15 | DET 25 @ TEN 46 | TEN | TEN -9.5 |
| 2016-09-18 | 2016 Wk 2 | TEN 16 @ DET 15 | TEN | DET -6 |
| 2012-09-23 | 2012 Wk 3 | DET 41 @ TEN 44 | TEN | DET -3.5 |
| 2008-11-27 | 2008 Wk 13 | TEN 47 @ DET 10 | TEN | TEN -11 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away