TENDET
Tennessee Titans @ Detroit Lions
Any-day matchup, Lions at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Lions
82% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 82% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Lions can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Lions about 6.0 points stronger.
- Lions passing game (1st in EPA) faces the Titans defense that ranks 25th against it.
- Simulation: Lions win 8,190 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Lions +7.0, Titans -6.7.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.6 points to Lions in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Lions may not
- Upset odds: Titans win 1,810 of 10,000 simulations (18%). A 82% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Lions lose by 5 or more.
- History: Titans won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Weak spot: Lions rank 32nd in explosive plays allowed per game (5.7).
- Weak spot: Lions rank 29th in defense, EPA per play allowed (+0.12).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -10.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.7 |
| Win chance | TEN n/a · DET n/a | TEN 18% · DET 82% |
| Fair moneyline | TEN +451 · DET -451 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DET 30, TEN 17.
- 80% of simulations land between TEN by 5 and DET by 28.
Side by side
| TEN | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | Record | 4-2 |
| 15.4 31 | Points per game | 30.7 2 |
| 22.3 15 | Points allowed | 27.5 26 |
| -0.11 31 | Offense EPA/play | +0.14 4 |
| +0.05 22 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 29 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 7.1% 12 | Sacks per dropback | 7.5% 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-27 | 2024 Wk 8 | TEN 14 @ DET 52 | DET | DET -12.5 |
| 2020-12-20 | 2020 Wk 15 | DET 25 @ TEN 46 | TEN | TEN -9.5 |
| 2016-09-18 | 2016 Wk 2 | TEN 16 @ DET 15 | TEN | DET -6 |
| 2012-09-23 | 2012 Wk 3 | DET 41 @ TEN 44 | TEN | DET -3.5 |
| 2008-11-27 | 2008 Wk 13 | TEN 47 @ DET 10 | TEN | TEN -11 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away