DETWAS
Detroit Lions @ Washington Commanders
Any-day matchup, Commanders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Lions
68% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 68% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Lions can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Lions about 4.3 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Lions +7.0, Commanders -7.7.
- Lions passing game (1st in EPA) faces the Commanders defense that ranks 21st against it.
- Point differential per game: Lions rank 9th (+3.2), Commanders 27th (-6.7).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.1 points to Lions in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Lions may not
- Home field: Commanders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Commanders win 3,170 of 10,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Commanders passing game (19th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Commanders running game (12th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 20th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Lions lose by 11 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -5.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 52.9 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · WAS n/a | DET 68% · WAS 32% |
| Fair moneyline | DET -215 · WAS +215 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: WAS 24, DET 29.
- 80% of simulations land between DET by 22 and WAS by 11.
Side by side
| DET | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 1-4-1 |
| 30.7 2 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 27.5 26 | Points allowed | 28.7 31 |
| +0.14 4 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 17 |
| +0.12 29 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 25 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | +1.0 2 |
| 7.5% 7 | Sacks per dropback | 4.8% 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | 2025 Wk 10 | DET 44 @ WAS 22 | DET | DET -8.5 |
| 2025-01-18 | 2024 Divisional | WAS 45 @ DET 31 | WAS | DET -8.5 |
| 2022-09-18 | 2022 Wk 2 | WAS 27 @ DET 36 | DET | WAS -1 |
| 2020-11-15 | 2020 Wk 10 | WAS 27 @ DET 30 | DET | DET -2.5 |
| 2019-11-24 | 2019 Wk 12 | DET 16 @ WAS 19 | WAS | DET -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away