WASDET
Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions
Any-day matchup, Lions at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Lions
76% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 76% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Lions can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Lions about 4.3 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Lions +7.0, Commanders -7.7.
- Lions passing game (1st in EPA) faces the Commanders defense that ranks 21st against it.
- Simulation: Lions win 7,600 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Lions rank 9th (+3.2), Commanders 27th (-6.7).
Disadvantages Why the Lions may not
- Commanders passing game (19th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Upset odds: Commanders win 2,400 of 10,000 simulations (24%). A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Commanders running game (12th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 20th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Lions lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: Lions rank 32nd in explosive plays allowed per game (5.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -8.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 52.9 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · DET n/a | WAS 24% · DET 76% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +317 · DET -317 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DET 30, WAS 22.
- 80% of simulations land between WAS by 7 and DET by 25.
Side by side
| WAS | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4-1 | Record | 4-2 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 30.7 2 |
| 28.7 31 | Points allowed | 27.5 26 |
| -0.01 17 | Offense EPA/play | +0.14 4 |
| +0.08 25 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 29 |
| +1.0 2 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 4.8% 23 | Sacks per dropback | 7.5% 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | 2025 Wk 10 | DET 44 @ WAS 22 | DET | DET -8.5 |
| 2025-01-18 | 2024 Divisional | WAS 45 @ DET 31 | WAS | DET -8.5 |
| 2022-09-18 | 2022 Wk 2 | WAS 27 @ DET 36 | DET | WAS -1 |
| 2020-11-15 | 2020 Wk 10 | WAS 27 @ DET 30 | DET | DET -2.5 |
| 2019-11-24 | 2019 Wk 12 | DET 16 @ WAS 19 | WAS | DET -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away