GBIND
Green Bay Packers @ Indianapolis Colts
Any-day matchup, Colts at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
GBGreen Bay Packers
59% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 59% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Packers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Packers +5.0, Colts -8.0.
- Turnover margin per game: Packers rank 8th (+0.5), Colts 32nd (-1.3).
- Simulation: Packers win 5,870 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.5 points to Packers in our ratings.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Packers about 1.4 points stronger.
Disadvantages Why the Packers may not
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Upset odds: Colts win 4,130 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Colts play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Penalty yards per game: Colts rank 1st (38.7), Packers 32nd (73.9).
- Packers have 1 regular listed questionable (Matthew Golden).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GB -2 |
| Total points | n/a | 47 |
| Win chance | GB n/a · IND n/a | GB 59% · IND 41% |
| Fair moneyline | GB -142 · IND +142 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: IND 23, GB 24.
- 80% of simulations land between GB by 18 and IND by 14.
Side by side
| GB | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 2-5 |
| 21.4 23 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 20.5 11 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| +0.01 14 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 26 |
| -0.06 4 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 19 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | -1.3 32 |
| 7.2% 11 | Sacks per dropback | 5.8% 20 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-15 | 2024 Wk 2 | IND 10 @ GB 16 | GB | IND -3 |
| 2020-11-22 | 2020 Wk 11 | GB 31 @ IND 34 | IND | IND -1.5 |
| 2016-11-06 | 2016 Wk 9 | IND 31 @ GB 26 | IND | GB -7.5 |
| 2012-10-07 | 2012 Wk 5 | GB 27 @ IND 30 | IND | GB -6.5 |
| 2008-10-19 | 2008 Wk 7 | IND 14 @ GB 34 | GB | IND -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away