INDGB
Indianapolis Colts @ Green Bay Packers
Any-day matchup, Packers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
GBGreen Bay Packers
67% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 67% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Packers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Packers +5.0, Colts -8.0.
- Turnover margin per game: Packers rank 8th (+0.5), Colts 32nd (-1.3).
- Simulation: Packers win 6,660 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to Packers in our ratings.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Packers about 1.4 points stronger.
Disadvantages Why the Packers may not
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Upset odds: Colts win 3,340 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Penalty yards per game: Colts rank 1st (38.7), Packers 32nd (73.9).
- Packers have 1 regular listed questionable (Matthew Golden).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Packers lose by 11 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GB -5.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 47 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · GB n/a | IND 33% · GB 67% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +199 · GB -199 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: GB 26, IND 20.
- 80% of simulations land between IND by 11 and GB by 22.
Side by side
| IND | GB | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-3 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 21.4 23 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 20.5 11 |
| -0.06 26 | Offense EPA/play | +0.01 14 |
| +0.03 19 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 4 |
| -1.3 32 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 5.8% 20 | Sacks per dropback | 7.2% 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-15 | 2024 Wk 2 | IND 10 @ GB 16 | GB | IND -3 |
| 2020-11-22 | 2020 Wk 11 | GB 31 @ IND 34 | IND | IND -1.5 |
| 2016-11-06 | 2016 Wk 9 | IND 31 @ GB 26 | IND | GB -7.5 |
| 2012-10-07 | 2012 Wk 5 | GB 27 @ IND 30 | IND | GB -6.5 |
| 2008-10-19 | 2008 Wk 7 | IND 14 @ GB 34 | GB | IND -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away