GBJAX
Green Bay Packers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Any-day matchup, Jaguars at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
63% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 63% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Simulation: Jaguars win 6,320 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Jaguars rank 2nd (+8.3), Packers 15th (+0.9).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Jaguars about 1.3 points stronger.
- Home field: Jaguars play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Upset odds: Packers win 3,680 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Packers rank 11th (7.2%), Jaguars 24th (4.5%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 12 or more.
- History: Packers won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Packers rank 3rd (4.5), Jaguars 10th (3.8).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | JAX -4.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.7 |
| Win chance | GB n/a · JAX n/a | GB 37% · JAX 63% |
| Fair moneyline | GB +172 · JAX -172 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: JAX 24, GB 21.
- 80% of simulations land between GB by 12 and JAX by 21.
Side by side
| GB | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 4-2 |
| 21.4 23 | Points per game | 25.7 8 |
| 20.5 11 | Points allowed | 17.3 3 |
| +0.01 14 | Offense EPA/play | +0.15 3 |
| -0.06 4 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 11 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 7.2% 11 | Sacks per dropback | 4.5% 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-27 | 2024 Wk 8 | GB 30 @ JAX 27 | GB | GB -3.5 |
| 2020-11-15 | 2020 Wk 10 | JAX 20 @ GB 24 | GB | GB -13.5 |
| 2016-09-11 | 2016 Wk 1 | GB 27 @ JAX 23 | GB | GB -3.5 |
| 2012-10-28 | 2012 Wk 8 | JAX 15 @ GB 24 | GB | GB -15 |
| 2008-12-14 | 2008 Wk 15 | GB 16 @ JAX 20 | JAX | GB -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away