JAXGB
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Green Bay Packers
Any-day matchup, Packers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
54% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 54% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Point differential per game: Jaguars rank 2nd (+8.3), Packers 15th (+0.9).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Jaguars about 1.3 points stronger.
- Simulation: Jaguars win 5,360 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.1 points to Jaguars in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Upset odds: Packers win 4,640 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home field: Packers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Packers rank 11th (7.2%), Jaguars 24th (4.5%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 15 or more.
- History: Packers won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | JAX -0.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.7 |
| Win chance | JAX n/a · GB n/a | JAX 54% · GB 46% |
| Fair moneyline | JAX -115 · GB +115 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: GB 23, JAX 24.
- 80% of simulations land between JAX by 18 and GB by 15.
Side by side
| JAX | GB | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 5-3 |
| 25.7 8 | Points per game | 21.4 23 |
| 17.3 3 | Points allowed | 20.5 11 |
| +0.15 3 | Offense EPA/play | +0.01 14 |
| -0.03 11 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 4 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 4.5% 24 | Sacks per dropback | 7.2% 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-27 | 2024 Wk 8 | GB 30 @ JAX 27 | GB | GB -3.5 |
| 2020-11-15 | 2020 Wk 10 | JAX 20 @ GB 24 | GB | GB -13.5 |
| 2016-09-11 | 2016 Wk 1 | GB 27 @ JAX 23 | GB | GB -3.5 |
| 2012-10-28 | 2012 Wk 8 | JAX 15 @ GB 24 | GB | GB -15 |
| 2008-12-14 | 2008 Wk 15 | GB 16 @ JAX 20 | JAX | GB -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away