GBKC
Green Bay Packers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Any-day matchup, Chiefs at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
62% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 62% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Simulation: Chiefs win 6,150 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chiefs about 1.7 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Chiefs rank 5th (+6.7), Packers 15th (+0.9).
- Home field: Chiefs play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Upset odds: Packers win 3,850 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Packers rank 11th (7.2%), Chiefs 31st (3.2%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: Chiefs rank 31st in pass rush, sacks per dropback (3.2%).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Packers rank 3rd (4.5), Chiefs 10th (3.8).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KC -3.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.6 |
| Win chance | GB n/a · KC n/a | GB 38% · KC 62% |
| Fair moneyline | GB +160 · KC -160 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: KC 24, GB 20.
- 80% of simulations land between GB by 12 and KC by 21.
Side by side
| GB | KC | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 5-1 |
| 21.4 23 | Points per game | 23.8 14 |
| 20.5 11 | Points allowed | 17.2 2 |
| +0.01 14 | Offense EPA/play | +0.10 7 |
| -0.06 4 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 6 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 7.2% 11 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 31 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-03 | 2023 Wk 13 | KC 19 @ GB 27 | GB | KC -5.5 |
| 2021-11-07 | 2021 Wk 9 | GB 7 @ KC 13 | KC | KC -7 |
| 2019-10-27 | 2019 Wk 8 | GB 31 @ KC 24 | GB | GB -5 |
| 2015-09-28 | 2015 Wk 3 | KC 28 @ GB 38 | GB | GB -4.5 |
| 2011-12-18 | 2011 Wk 15 | GB 14 @ KC 19 | KC | GB -11 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away