KCGB
Kansas City Chiefs @ Green Bay Packers
Any-day matchup, Packers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
53% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 53% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chiefs about 1.7 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Chiefs rank 5th (+6.7), Packers 15th (+0.9).
- Simulation: Chiefs win 5,280 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Chiefs running game (2nd in EPA) faces the Packers defense that ranks 10th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Upset odds: Packers win 4,720 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home field: Packers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Packers rank 11th (7.2%), Chiefs 31st (3.2%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 16 or more.
- Weak spot: Chiefs rank 31st in pass rush, sacks per dropback (3.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KC -0.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.6 |
| Win chance | KC n/a · GB n/a | KC 53% · GB 47% |
| Fair moneyline | KC -112 · GB +112 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: GB 23, KC 23.
- 80% of simulations land between KC by 17 and GB by 16.
Side by side
| KC | GB | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 5-3 |
| 23.8 14 | Points per game | 21.4 23 |
| 17.2 2 | Points allowed | 20.5 11 |
| +0.10 7 | Offense EPA/play | +0.01 14 |
| -0.05 6 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 4 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 3.2% 31 | Sacks per dropback | 7.2% 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-03 | 2023 Wk 13 | KC 19 @ GB 27 | GB | KC -5.5 |
| 2021-11-07 | 2021 Wk 9 | GB 7 @ KC 13 | KC | KC -7 |
| 2019-10-27 | 2019 Wk 8 | GB 31 @ KC 24 | GB | GB -5 |
| 2015-09-28 | 2015 Wk 3 | KC 28 @ GB 38 | GB | GB -4.5 |
| 2011-12-18 | 2011 Wk 15 | GB 14 @ KC 19 | KC | GB -11 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away