GBLV
Green Bay Packers @ Las Vegas Raiders
Any-day matchup, Raiders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
GBGreen Bay Packers
63% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 63% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Packers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Packers +5.0, Raiders -15.0.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Packers about 2.9 points stronger.
- Packers passing game (11th in EPA) faces the Raiders defense that ranks 27th against it.
- Simulation: Packers win 6,300 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to Packers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Packers may not
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Upset odds: Raiders win 3,700 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Raiders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Packers cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Packers have 1 regular listed questionable (Matthew Golden).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GB -3.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.8 |
| Win chance | GB n/a · LV n/a | GB 63% · LV 37% |
| Fair moneyline | GB -170 · LV +170 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LV 21, GB 25.
- 80% of simulations land between GB by 20 and LV by 13.
Side by side
| GB | LV | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 3-4 |
| 21.4 23 | Points per game | 26.1 6 |
| 20.5 11 | Points allowed | 28.1 29 |
| +0.01 14 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 18 |
| -0.06 4 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.06 24 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 7.2% 11 | Sacks per dropback | 6.7% 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-09 | 2023 Wk 5 | GB 13 @ LV 17 | LV | LV -1 |
| 2019-10-20 | 2019 Wk 7 | LV 24 @ GB 42 | GB | GB -5.5 |
| 2015-12-20 | 2015 Wk 15 | GB 30 @ LV 20 | GB | GB -4 |
| 2011-12-11 | 2011 Wk 14 | LV 16 @ GB 46 | GB | GB -11.5 |
| 2007-12-09 | 2007 Wk 14 | LV 7 @ GB 38 | GB | GB -10.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away