LVGB
Las Vegas Raiders @ Green Bay Packers
Any-day matchup, Packers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
GBGreen Bay Packers
70% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 70% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Packers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Packers +5.0, Raiders -15.0.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Packers about 2.8 points stronger.
- Simulation: Packers win 7,040 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Packers passing game (11th in EPA) faces the Raiders defense that ranks 27th against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.5 points to Packers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Packers may not
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Upset odds: Raiders win 2,960 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Packers have 1 regular listed questionable (Matthew Golden).
- Penalty yards per game: Raiders rank 6th (49.6), Packers 32nd (73.9).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Packers lose by 10 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GB -6.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.8 |
| Win chance | LV n/a · GB n/a | LV 30% · GB 70% |
| Fair moneyline | LV +238 · GB -238 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: GB 27, LV 20.
- 80% of simulations land between LV by 10 and GB by 24.
Side by side
| LV | GB | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 5-3 |
| 26.1 6 | Points per game | 21.4 23 |
| 28.1 29 | Points allowed | 20.5 11 |
| -0.01 18 | Offense EPA/play | +0.01 14 |
| +0.06 24 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 4 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 6.7% 15 | Sacks per dropback | 7.2% 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-09 | 2023 Wk 5 | GB 13 @ LV 17 | LV | LV -1 |
| 2019-10-20 | 2019 Wk 7 | LV 24 @ GB 42 | GB | GB -5.5 |
| 2015-12-20 | 2015 Wk 15 | GB 30 @ LV 20 | GB | GB -4 |
| 2011-12-11 | 2011 Wk 14 | LV 16 @ GB 46 | GB | GB -11.5 |
| 2007-12-09 | 2007 Wk 14 | LV 7 @ GB 38 | GB | GB -10.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away