GBNE
Green Bay Packers @ New England Patriots
Any-day matchup, Patriots at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NENew England Patriots
55% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 55% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Patriots can win
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Simulation: Patriots win 5,470 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Patriots play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Packers have 1 regular listed questionable (Matthew Golden).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.5 points to Patriots in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Patriots may not
- Turnover margin per game: Packers rank 8th (+0.5), Patriots 31st (-1.0).
- Upset odds: Packers win 4,530 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Packers passing game (11th in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 22nd against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Patriots lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: Patriots rank 31st in turnover margin per game (-1.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NE -1.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.6 |
| Win chance | GB n/a · NE n/a | GB 45% · NE 55% |
| Fair moneyline | GB +121 · NE -121 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NE 24, GB 23.
- 80% of simulations land between GB by 15 and NE by 19.
Side by side
| GB | NE | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 4-3 |
| 21.4 23 | Points per game | 22.9 19 |
| 20.5 11 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| +0.01 14 | Offense EPA/play | +0.07 9 |
| -0.06 4 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 20 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | -1.0 31 |
| 7.2% 11 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 13 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-02 | 2022 Wk 4 | NE 24 @ GB 27 | GB | GB -10 |
| 2018-11-04 | 2018 Wk 9 | GB 17 @ NE 31 | NE | NE -5 |
| 2014-11-30 | 2014 Wk 13 | NE 21 @ GB 26 | GB | GB -3 |
| 2010-12-19 | 2010 Wk 15 | GB 27 @ NE 31 | NE | NE -14 |
| 2006-11-19 | 2006 Wk 11 | NE 35 @ GB 0 | NE | NE -5.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away