NEGB
New England Patriots @ Green Bay Packers
Any-day matchup, Packers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
GBGreen Bay Packers
54% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 54% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Packers can win
- Turnover margin per game: Packers rank 8th (+0.5), Patriots 31st (-1.0).
- Packers passing game (11th in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 22nd against it.
- Simulation: Packers win 5,380 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Packers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Strength: Packers rank 3rd in explosive plays (20+ yards) per game (4.5).
Disadvantages Why the Packers may not
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Upset odds: Patriots win 4,620 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Packers have 1 regular listed questionable (Matthew Golden).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Packers lose by 15 or more.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.5 points to Patriots in our ratings.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GB -1.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.6 |
| Win chance | NE n/a · GB n/a | NE 46% · GB 54% |
| Fair moneyline | NE +116 · GB -116 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: GB 24, NE 23.
- 80% of simulations land between NE by 15 and GB by 18.
Side by side
| NE | GB | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 5-3 |
| 22.9 19 | Points per game | 21.4 23 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 20.5 11 |
| +0.07 9 | Offense EPA/play | +0.01 14 |
| +0.03 20 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 4 |
| -1.0 31 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 7.0% 13 | Sacks per dropback | 7.2% 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-02 | 2022 Wk 4 | NE 24 @ GB 27 | GB | GB -10 |
| 2018-11-04 | 2018 Wk 9 | GB 17 @ NE 31 | NE | NE -5 |
| 2014-11-30 | 2014 Wk 13 | NE 21 @ GB 26 | GB | GB -3 |
| 2010-12-19 | 2010 Wk 15 | GB 27 @ NE 31 | NE | NE -14 |
| 2006-11-19 | 2006 Wk 11 | NE 35 @ GB 0 | NE | NE -5.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away