GBNYG
Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants
Any-day matchup, Giants at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
GBGreen Bay Packers
63% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 63% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Packers can win
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Packers about 3.7 points stronger.
- Simulation: Packers win 6,340 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Giants have 3 regulars listed questionable (Paulson Adebo, Marcus Mbow, Jermaine Eluemunor).
- Turnover margin per game: Packers rank 8th (+0.5), Giants 20th (-0.3).
Disadvantages Why the Packers may not
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Upset odds: Giants win 3,660 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Giants play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Packers have 1 regular listed questionable (Matthew Golden).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Packers lose by 13 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GB -3.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.6 |
| Win chance | GB n/a · NYG n/a | GB 63% · NYG 37% |
| Fair moneyline | GB -173 · NYG +173 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYG 20, GB 24.
- 80% of simulations land between GB by 20 and NYG by 13.
Side by side
| GB | NYG | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 4-2-1 |
| 21.4 23 | Points per game | 23.3 16 |
| 20.5 11 | Points allowed | 23.0 17 |
| +0.01 14 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 16 |
| -0.06 4 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.00 16 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | -0.3 20 |
| 7.2% 11 | Sacks per dropback | 3.9% 29 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-16 | 2025 Wk 11 | GB 27 @ NYG 20 | GB | GB -7.5 |
| 2023-12-11 | 2023 Wk 14 | GB 22 @ NYG 24 | NYG | GB -6 |
| 2022-10-09 | 2022 Wk 5 | NYG 27 @ GB 22 | NYG | GB -8.5 |
| 2019-12-01 | 2019 Wk 13 | GB 31 @ NYG 13 | GB | GB -6.5 |
| 2017-01-08 | 2016 Wild Card | NYG 13 @ GB 38 | GB | GB -5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away