NYGGB
New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers
Any-day matchup, Packers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
GBGreen Bay Packers
71% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 71% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Packers can win
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Packers about 3.6 points stronger.
- Simulation: Packers win 7,110 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Packers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Giants have 3 regulars listed questionable (Paulson Adebo, Marcus Mbow, Jermaine Eluemunor).
Disadvantages Why the Packers may not
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Upset odds: Giants win 2,890 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Packers have 1 regular listed questionable (Matthew Golden).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Packers lose by 9 or more.
- Weak spot: Packers rank 32nd in penalty yards per game (73.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GB -6.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.6 |
| Win chance | NYG n/a · GB n/a | NYG 29% · GB 71% |
| Fair moneyline | NYG +246 · GB -246 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: GB 26, NYG 20.
- 80% of simulations land between NYG by 9 and GB by 24.
Side by side
| NYG | GB | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2-1 | Record | 5-3 |
| 23.3 16 | Points per game | 21.4 23 |
| 23.0 17 | Points allowed | 20.5 11 |
| +0.00 16 | Offense EPA/play | +0.01 14 |
| +0.00 16 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 4 |
| -0.3 20 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 3.9% 29 | Sacks per dropback | 7.2% 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-16 | 2025 Wk 11 | GB 27 @ NYG 20 | GB | GB -7.5 |
| 2023-12-11 | 2023 Wk 14 | GB 22 @ NYG 24 | NYG | GB -6 |
| 2022-10-09 | 2022 Wk 5 | NYG 27 @ GB 22 | NYG | GB -8.5 |
| 2019-12-01 | 2019 Wk 13 | GB 31 @ NYG 13 | GB | GB -6.5 |
| 2017-01-08 | 2016 Wild Card | NYG 13 @ GB 38 | GB | GB -5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away