GBPHI
Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Any-day matchup, Eagles at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
GBGreen Bay Packers
60% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 60% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Packers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Packers +5.0, Eagles -10.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.3 points to Packers in our ratings.
- Packers passing game (11th in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 26th against it.
- Point differential per game: Packers rank 15th (+0.9), Eagles 28th (-6.9).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Packers rank 3rd (4.5), Eagles 31st (2.0).
Disadvantages Why the Packers may not
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Upset odds: Eagles win 3,980 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Eagles play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Packers have 1 regular listed questionable (Matthew Golden).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Packers lose by 14 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GB -2.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.4 |
| Win chance | GB n/a · PHI n/a | GB 60% · PHI 40% |
| Fair moneyline | GB -151 · PHI +151 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PHI 20, GB 23.
- 80% of simulations land between GB by 20 and PHI by 14.
Side by side
| GB | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 2-5 |
| 21.4 23 | Points per game | 18.1 29 |
| 20.5 11 | Points allowed | 25.0 21 |
| +0.01 14 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 30 |
| -0.06 4 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.09 27 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 7.2% 11 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 32 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-10 | 2025 Wk 10 | PHI 10 @ GB 7 | PHI | GB -1.5 |
| 2025-01-12 | 2024 Wild Card | GB 10 @ PHI 22 | PHI | PHI -5.5 |
| 2024-09-06 | 2024 Wk 1 | GB 29 @ PHI 34 | PHI | PHI -2 |
| 2022-11-27 | 2022 Wk 12 | GB 33 @ PHI 40 | PHI | PHI -6.5 |
| 2020-12-06 | 2020 Wk 13 | PHI 16 @ GB 30 | GB | GB -8 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away