PHIGB
Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers
Any-day matchup, Packers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
GBGreen Bay Packers
70% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 70% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Packers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Packers +5.0, Eagles -10.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.2 points to Packers in our ratings.
- Simulation: Packers win 6,950 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Packers passing game (11th in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 26th against it.
- Point differential per game: Packers rank 15th (+0.9), Eagles 28th (-6.9).
Disadvantages Why the Packers may not
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Upset odds: Eagles win 3,050 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Packers have 1 regular listed questionable (Matthew Golden).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Packers lose by 10 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Eagles rank 9th (52.1), Packers 32nd (73.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GB -5.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.4 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · GB n/a | PHI 30% · GB 70% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI +227 · GB -227 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: GB 24, PHI 17.
- 80% of simulations land between PHI by 10 and GB by 23.
Side by side
| PHI | GB | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-3 |
| 18.1 29 | Points per game | 21.4 23 |
| 25.0 21 | Points allowed | 20.5 11 |
| -0.11 30 | Offense EPA/play | +0.01 14 |
| +0.09 27 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 4 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 3.2% 32 | Sacks per dropback | 7.2% 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-10 | 2025 Wk 10 | PHI 10 @ GB 7 | PHI | GB -1.5 |
| 2025-01-12 | 2024 Wild Card | GB 10 @ PHI 22 | PHI | PHI -5.5 |
| 2024-09-06 | 2024 Wk 1 | GB 29 @ PHI 34 | PHI | PHI -2 |
| 2022-11-27 | 2022 Wk 12 | GB 33 @ PHI 40 | PHI | PHI -6.5 |
| 2020-12-06 | 2020 Wk 13 | PHI 16 @ GB 30 | GB | GB -8 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away