GBPIT
Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Any-day matchup, Steelers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
PITPittsburgh Steelers
50% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 50% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Steelers can win
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Home field: Steelers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Steelers win 5,040 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Packers have 1 regular listed questionable (Matthew Golden).
- Penalty yards per game: Steelers rank 10th (52.4), Packers 32nd (73.9).
Disadvantages Why the Steelers may not
- Upset odds: Packers win 4,960 of 10,000 simulations (50%). A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Packers rank 7th (4.3%), Steelers 23rd (7.7%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Steelers lose by 17 or more.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Packers rank 3rd (4.5), Steelers 13th (3.7).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Packers about 0.4 points stronger.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PIT -0.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.6 |
| Win chance | GB n/a · PIT n/a | GB 50% · PIT 50% |
| Fair moneyline | GB +101 · PIT -101 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PIT 21, GB 21.
- 80% of simulations land between GB by 17 and PIT by 17.
Side by side
| GB | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 5-2 |
| 21.4 23 | Points per game | 21.9 22 |
| 20.5 11 | Points allowed | 19.7 5 |
| +0.01 14 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 27 |
| -0.06 4 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 10 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 7.2% 11 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-26 | 2025 Wk 8 | GB 35 @ PIT 25 | GB | GB -3 |
| 2023-11-12 | 2023 Wk 10 | GB 19 @ PIT 23 | PIT | PIT -3 |
| 2021-10-03 | 2021 Wk 4 | PIT 17 @ GB 27 | GB | GB -6.5 |
| 2017-11-26 | 2017 Wk 12 | GB 28 @ PIT 31 | PIT | PIT -14 |
| 2013-12-22 | 2013 Wk 16 | PIT 38 @ GB 31 | PIT | PIT -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away