PITGB
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Green Bay Packers
Any-day matchup, Packers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
GBGreen Bay Packers
58% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 58% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Packers can win
- Simulation: Packers win 5,780 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Packers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Packers rank 7th (4.3%), Steelers 23rd (7.7%).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Packers rank 3rd (4.5), Steelers 13th (3.7).
- Efficiency (EPA per play): worth about 0.4 points to Packers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Packers may not
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Upset odds: Steelers win 4,220 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Packers have 1 regular listed questionable (Matthew Golden).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Packers lose by 14 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Steelers rank 10th (52.4), Packers 32nd (73.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GB -2.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.6 |
| Win chance | PIT n/a · GB n/a | PIT 42% · GB 58% |
| Fair moneyline | PIT +137 · GB -137 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: GB 23, PIT 20.
- 80% of simulations land between PIT by 14 and GB by 19.
Side by side
| PIT | GB | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 5-3 |
| 21.9 22 | Points per game | 21.4 23 |
| 19.7 5 | Points allowed | 20.5 11 |
| -0.06 27 | Offense EPA/play | +0.01 14 |
| -0.03 10 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 4 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 7.0% 14 | Sacks per dropback | 7.2% 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-26 | 2025 Wk 8 | GB 35 @ PIT 25 | GB | GB -3 |
| 2023-11-12 | 2023 Wk 10 | GB 19 @ PIT 23 | PIT | PIT -3 |
| 2021-10-03 | 2021 Wk 4 | PIT 17 @ GB 27 | GB | GB -6.5 |
| 2017-11-26 | 2017 Wk 12 | GB 28 @ PIT 31 | PIT | PIT -14 |
| 2013-12-22 | 2013 Wk 16 | PIT 38 @ GB 31 | PIT | PIT -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away