GBSF
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers
Any-day matchup, 49ers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
63% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 63% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Simulation: 49ers win 6,280 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: 49ers rank 3rd (+8.3), Packers 15th (+0.9).
- Home field: 49ers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated 49ers about 1.0 points stronger.
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Upset odds: Packers win 3,720 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Packers rank 8th (+0.5), 49ers 21st (-0.4).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, 49ers lose by 11 or more.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Packers rank 11th (7.2%), 49ers 21st (5.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -4.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.5 |
| Win chance | GB n/a · SF n/a | GB 37% · SF 63% |
| Fair moneyline | GB +169 · SF -169 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SF 26, GB 22.
- 80% of simulations land between GB by 11 and SF by 21.
Side by side
| GB | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 6-1 |
| 21.4 23 | Points per game | 28.1 3 |
| 20.5 11 | Points allowed | 19.9 6 |
| +0.01 14 | Offense EPA/play | +0.19 2 |
| -0.06 4 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 12 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 7.2% 11 | Sacks per dropback | 5.7% 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-24 | 2024 Wk 12 | SF 10 @ GB 38 | GB | GB -6.5 |
| 2024-01-20 | 2023 Divisional | GB 21 @ SF 24 | SF | SF -10.5 |
| 2022-01-22 | 2021 Divisional | SF 13 @ GB 10 | SF | GB -5.5 |
| 2021-09-26 | 2021 Wk 3 | GB 30 @ SF 28 | GB | SF -3.5 |
| 2020-11-05 | 2020 Wk 9 | GB 34 @ SF 17 | GB | GB -6 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away