SFGB
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers
Any-day matchup, Packers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
55% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 55% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Point differential per game: 49ers rank 3rd (+8.3), Packers 15th (+0.9).
- Simulation: 49ers win 5,460 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated 49ers about 1.1 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.0 points to 49ers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- Upset odds: Packers win 4,540 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Home field: Packers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Turnover margin per game: Packers rank 8th (+0.5), 49ers 21st (-0.4).
- Travel: 49ers cross 2 time zones for this one.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -1 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.5 |
| Win chance | SF n/a · GB n/a | SF 55% · GB 45% |
| Fair moneyline | SF -120 · GB +120 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: GB 23, SF 24.
- 80% of simulations land between SF by 17 and GB by 16.
Side by side
| SF | GB | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 5-3 |
| 28.1 3 | Points per game | 21.4 23 |
| 19.9 6 | Points allowed | 20.5 11 |
| +0.19 2 | Offense EPA/play | +0.01 14 |
| -0.03 12 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 4 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 5.7% 21 | Sacks per dropback | 7.2% 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-24 | 2024 Wk 12 | SF 10 @ GB 38 | GB | GB -6.5 |
| 2024-01-20 | 2023 Divisional | GB 21 @ SF 24 | SF | SF -10.5 |
| 2022-01-22 | 2021 Divisional | SF 13 @ GB 10 | SF | GB -5.5 |
| 2021-09-26 | 2021 Wk 3 | GB 30 @ SF 28 | GB | SF -3.5 |
| 2020-11-05 | 2020 Wk 9 | GB 34 @ SF 17 | GB | GB -6 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away