GBTEN
Green Bay Packers @ Tennessee Titans
Any-day matchup, Titans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
GBGreen Bay Packers
73% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 73% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Packers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Packers about 4.8 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.6 points to Packers in our ratings.
- Simulation: Packers win 7,310 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Packers +5.0, Titans -6.7.
- Packers passing game (11th in EPA) faces the Titans defense that ranks 25th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Packers may not
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Home field: Titans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Titans win 2,690 of 10,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Packers have 1 regular listed questionable (Matthew Golden).
- Penalty yards per game: Titans rank 5th (48.1), Packers 32nd (73.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GB -6.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.2 |
| Win chance | GB n/a · TEN n/a | GB 73% · TEN 27% |
| Fair moneyline | GB -271 · TEN +271 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TEN 17, GB 24.
- 80% of simulations land between GB by 24 and TEN by 9.
Side by side
| GB | TEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 1-6 |
| 21.4 23 | Points per game | 15.4 31 |
| 20.5 11 | Points allowed | 22.3 15 |
| +0.01 14 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 31 |
| -0.06 4 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 22 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 7.2% 11 | Sacks per dropback | 7.1% 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | 2024 Wk 3 | GB 30 @ TEN 14 | GB | TEN -3 |
| 2022-11-17 | 2022 Wk 11 | TEN 27 @ GB 17 | TEN | GB -3 |
| 2020-12-27 | 2020 Wk 16 | TEN 14 @ GB 40 | GB | GB -3 |
| 2016-11-13 | 2016 Wk 10 | GB 25 @ TEN 47 | TEN | GB -3 |
| 2012-12-23 | 2012 Wk 16 | TEN 7 @ GB 55 | GB | GB -10.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away