TENGB
Tennessee Titans @ Green Bay Packers
Any-day matchup, Packers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
GBGreen Bay Packers
81% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 81% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Packers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Packers about 4.7 points stronger.
- Simulation: Packers win 8,080 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.5 points to Packers in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Packers +5.0, Titans -6.7.
- Packers passing game (11th in EPA) faces the Titans defense that ranks 25th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Packers may not
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Upset odds: Titans win 1,920 of 10,000 simulations (19%). A 81% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Packers have 1 regular listed questionable (Matthew Golden).
- Penalty yards per game: Titans rank 5th (48.1), Packers 32nd (73.9).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Packers lose by 6 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GB -9.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.2 |
| Win chance | TEN n/a · GB n/a | TEN 19% · GB 81% |
| Fair moneyline | TEN +420 · GB -420 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: GB 26, TEN 16.
- 80% of simulations land between TEN by 6 and GB by 27.
Side by side
| TEN | GB | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | Record | 5-3 |
| 15.4 31 | Points per game | 21.4 23 |
| 22.3 15 | Points allowed | 20.5 11 |
| -0.11 31 | Offense EPA/play | +0.01 14 |
| +0.05 22 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 4 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 7.1% 12 | Sacks per dropback | 7.2% 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | 2024 Wk 3 | GB 30 @ TEN 14 | GB | TEN -3 |
| 2022-11-17 | 2022 Wk 11 | TEN 27 @ GB 17 | TEN | GB -3 |
| 2020-12-27 | 2020 Wk 16 | TEN 14 @ GB 40 | GB | GB -3 |
| 2016-11-13 | 2016 Wk 10 | GB 25 @ TEN 47 | TEN | GB -3 |
| 2012-12-23 | 2012 Wk 16 | TEN 7 @ GB 55 | GB | GB -10.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away