HOUKC
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs
Any-day matchup, Chiefs at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
60% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 60% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Point differential per game: Chiefs rank 5th (+6.7), Texans 20th (-0.7).
- Chiefs running game (2nd in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 23rd against it.
- Simulation: Chiefs win 6,040 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Chiefs play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Upset odds: Texans win 3,960 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Texans rank 5th (7.9%), Chiefs 31st (3.2%).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Texans +6.7, Chiefs +0.7.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: Chiefs rank 31st in pass rush, sacks per dropback (3.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KC -3.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.3 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · KC n/a | HOU 40% · KC 60% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU +152 · KC -152 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: KC 24, HOU 20.
- 80% of simulations land between HOU by 13 and KC by 21.
Side by side
| HOU | KC | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-1 |
| 23.6 15 | Points per game | 23.8 14 |
| 24.3 19 | Points allowed | 17.2 2 |
| +0.02 12 | Offense EPA/play | +0.10 7 |
| +0.03 18 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 6 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 7.9% 5 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 31 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | 2025 Wk 14 | HOU 20 @ KC 10 | HOU | KC -4.5 |
| 2025-01-18 | 2024 Divisional | HOU 14 @ KC 23 | KC | KC -9.5 |
| 2024-12-21 | 2024 Wk 16 | HOU 19 @ KC 27 | KC | KC -3.5 |
| 2022-12-18 | 2022 Wk 15 | KC 30 @ HOU 24 | KC | KC -14.5 |
| 2020-09-10 | 2020 Wk 1 | HOU 20 @ KC 34 | KC | KC -9.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away