KCHOU
Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans
Any-day matchup, Texans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
52% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 52% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Point differential per game: Chiefs rank 5th (+6.7), Texans 20th (-0.7).
- Chiefs running game (2nd in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 23rd against it.
- Simulation: Chiefs win 5,190 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.8 points to Chiefs in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Upset odds: Texans win 4,810 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Texans rank 5th (7.9%), Chiefs 31st (3.2%).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Texans +6.7, Chiefs +0.7.
- Home field: Texans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 16 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KC -0.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.3 |
| Win chance | KC n/a · HOU n/a | KC 52% · HOU 48% |
| Fair moneyline | KC -108 · HOU +108 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: HOU 21, KC 22.
- 80% of simulations land between KC by 17 and HOU by 16.
Side by side
| KC | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 2-5 |
| 23.8 14 | Points per game | 23.6 15 |
| 17.2 2 | Points allowed | 24.3 19 |
| +0.10 7 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 12 |
| -0.05 6 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 18 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 3.2% 31 | Sacks per dropback | 7.9% 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | 2025 Wk 14 | HOU 20 @ KC 10 | HOU | KC -4.5 |
| 2025-01-18 | 2024 Divisional | HOU 14 @ KC 23 | KC | KC -9.5 |
| 2024-12-21 | 2024 Wk 16 | HOU 19 @ KC 27 | KC | KC -3.5 |
| 2022-12-18 | 2022 Wk 15 | KC 30 @ HOU 24 | KC | KC -14.5 |
| 2020-09-10 | 2020 Wk 1 | HOU 20 @ KC 34 | KC | KC -9.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away