HOUNE
Houston Texans @ New England Patriots
Any-day matchup, Patriots at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NENew England Patriots
55% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 55% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Patriots can win
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Point differential per game: Patriots rank 10th (+2.4), Texans 20th (-0.7).
- Patriots passing game (7th in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 17th against it.
- Simulation: Patriots win 5,450 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Patriots play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Patriots may not
- Upset odds: Texans win 4,550 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Texans rank 11th (+0.4), Patriots 31st (-1.0).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Texans about 0.9 points stronger.
- Texans passing game (15th in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 22nd against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Patriots lose by 15 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NE -1.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.3 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · NE n/a | HOU 46% · NE 55% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU +120 · NE -120 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NE 23, HOU 21.
- 80% of simulations land between HOU by 15 and NE by 18.
Side by side
| HOU | NE | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-3 |
| 23.6 15 | Points per game | 22.9 19 |
| 24.3 19 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| +0.02 12 | Offense EPA/play | +0.07 9 |
| +0.03 18 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 20 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | -1.0 31 |
| 7.9% 5 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 13 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | 2025 Divisional | HOU 16 @ NE 28 | NE | NE -3 |
| 2024-10-13 | 2024 Wk 6 | HOU 41 @ NE 21 | HOU | HOU -6.5 |
| 2021-10-10 | 2021 Wk 5 | NE 25 @ HOU 22 | NE | NE -8 |
| 2020-11-22 | 2020 Wk 11 | NE 20 @ HOU 27 | HOU | NE -2.5 |
| 2019-12-01 | 2019 Wk 13 | NE 22 @ HOU 28 | HOU | NE -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away