NEHOU
New England Patriots @ Houston Texans
Any-day matchup, Texans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Texans
54% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 54% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Texans can win
- Turnover margin per game: Texans rank 11th (+0.4), Patriots 31st (-1.0).
- Simulation: Texans win 5,430 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Texans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Texans passing game (15th in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 22nd against it.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Texans about 0.9 points stronger.
Disadvantages Why the Texans may not
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Upset odds: Patriots win 4,570 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Point differential per game: Patriots rank 10th (+2.4), Texans 20th (-0.7).
- Patriots passing game (7th in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 17th against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.9 points to Patriots in our ratings.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -1.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.3 |
| Win chance | NE n/a · HOU n/a | NE 46% · HOU 54% |
| Fair moneyline | NE +119 · HOU -119 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: HOU 23, NE 21.
- 80% of simulations land between NE by 14 and HOU by 18.
Side by side
| NE | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 2-5 |
| 22.9 19 | Points per game | 23.6 15 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 24.3 19 |
| +0.07 9 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 12 |
| +0.03 20 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 18 |
| -1.0 31 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 7.0% 13 | Sacks per dropback | 7.9% 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | 2025 Divisional | HOU 16 @ NE 28 | NE | NE -3 |
| 2024-10-13 | 2024 Wk 6 | HOU 41 @ NE 21 | HOU | HOU -6.5 |
| 2021-10-10 | 2021 Wk 5 | NE 25 @ HOU 22 | NE | NE -8 |
| 2020-11-22 | 2020 Wk 11 | NE 20 @ HOU 27 | HOU | NE -2.5 |
| 2019-12-01 | 2019 Wk 13 | NE 22 @ HOU 28 | HOU | NE -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away