HOUNYJ
Houston Texans @ New York Jets
Any-day matchup, Jets at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Texans
64% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 64% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Texans can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Texans about 4.1 points stronger.
- Simulation: Texans win 6,420 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Texans +6.7, Jets -1.7.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Texans rank 4th (4.0), Jets 23rd (3.0).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.1 points to Texans in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Texans may not
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Upset odds: Jets win 3,580 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Jets play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Texans lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: Texans rank 31st in explosive plays allowed per game (4.6).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -3.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.1 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · NYJ n/a | HOU 64% · NYJ 36% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU -179 · NYJ +179 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYJ 20, HOU 23.
- 80% of simulations land between HOU by 21 and NYJ by 12.
Side by side
| HOU | NYJ | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 2-5 |
| 23.6 15 | Points per game | 19.6 27 |
| 24.3 19 | Points allowed | 21.4 13 |
| +0.02 12 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 15 |
| +0.03 18 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.01 14 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 7.9% 5 | Sacks per dropback | 8.2% 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-31 | 2024 Wk 9 | HOU 13 @ NYJ 21 | NYJ | NYJ -2.5 |
| 2023-12-10 | 2023 Wk 14 | HOU 6 @ NYJ 30 | NYJ | HOU -3.5 |
| 2021-11-28 | 2021 Wk 12 | NYJ 21 @ HOU 14 | NYJ | HOU -3 |
| 2018-12-15 | 2018 Wk 15 | HOU 29 @ NYJ 22 | HOU | HOU -7 |
| 2015-11-22 | 2015 Wk 11 | NYJ 17 @ HOU 24 | HOU | NYJ -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away