NYJHOU
New York Jets @ Houston Texans
Any-day matchup, Texans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Texans
73% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 73% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Texans can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Texans about 4.0 points stronger.
- Simulation: Texans win 7,280 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Texans +6.7, Jets -1.7.
- Home field: Texans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Texans rank 4th (4.0), Jets 23rd (3.0).
Disadvantages Why the Texans may not
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Upset odds: Jets win 2,720 of 10,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Texans lose by 9 or more.
- Weak spot: Texans rank 31st in explosive plays allowed per game (4.6).
- Weak spot: Texans rank 28th in penalty yards per game (72.6).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -6.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.1 |
| Win chance | NYJ n/a · HOU n/a | NYJ 27% · HOU 73% |
| Fair moneyline | NYJ +268 · HOU -268 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: HOU 24, NYJ 17.
- 80% of simulations land between NYJ by 9 and HOU by 24.
Side by side
| NYJ | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 2-5 |
| 19.6 27 | Points per game | 23.6 15 |
| 21.4 13 | Points allowed | 24.3 19 |
| +0.00 15 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 12 |
| -0.01 14 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 18 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 8.2% 4 | Sacks per dropback | 7.9% 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-31 | 2024 Wk 9 | HOU 13 @ NYJ 21 | NYJ | NYJ -2.5 |
| 2023-12-10 | 2023 Wk 14 | HOU 6 @ NYJ 30 | NYJ | HOU -3.5 |
| 2021-11-28 | 2021 Wk 12 | NYJ 21 @ HOU 14 | NYJ | HOU -3 |
| 2018-12-15 | 2018 Wk 15 | HOU 29 @ NYJ 22 | HOU | HOU -7 |
| 2015-11-22 | 2015 Wk 11 | NYJ 17 @ HOU 24 | HOU | NYJ -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away