HOUSEA
Houston Texans @ Seattle Seahawks
Any-day matchup, Seahawks at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
66% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 66% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Simulation: Seahawks win 6,610 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Seahawks rank 6th (+6.1), Texans 20th (-0.7).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.5 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 1.3 points stronger.
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Upset odds: Texans win 3,390 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Texans rank 4th (4.0), Seahawks 17th (3.6).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Seahawks lose by 11 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -5 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.1 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · SEA n/a | HOU 34% · SEA 66% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU +195 · SEA -195 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SEA 23, HOU 19.
- 80% of simulations land between HOU by 11 and SEA by 21.
Side by side
| HOU | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-3 |
| 23.6 15 | Points per game | 24.0 13 |
| 24.3 19 | Points allowed | 17.9 4 |
| +0.02 12 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 24 |
| +0.03 18 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.13 2 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 7.9% 5 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-20 | 2025 Wk 7 | HOU 19 @ SEA 27 | SEA | SEA -3 |
| 2021-12-12 | 2021 Wk 14 | SEA 33 @ HOU 13 | SEA | SEA -10 |
| 2017-10-29 | 2017 Wk 8 | HOU 38 @ SEA 41 | SEA | SEA -6 |
| 2013-09-29 | 2013 Wk 4 | SEA 23 @ HOU 20 | SEA | SEA -1 |
| 2009-12-13 | 2009 Wk 14 | SEA 7 @ HOU 34 | HOU | HOU -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away