SEAHOU
Seattle Seahawks @ Houston Texans
Any-day matchup, Texans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
58% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 58% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Point differential per game: Seahawks rank 6th (+6.1), Texans 20th (-0.7).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Simulation: Seahawks win 5,830 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 1.4 points stronger.
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Upset odds: Texans win 4,170 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Home field: Texans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Seahawks cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -1.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.1 |
| Win chance | SEA n/a · HOU n/a | SEA 58% · HOU 42% |
| Fair moneyline | SEA -140 · HOU +140 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: HOU 20, SEA 23.
- 80% of simulations land between SEA by 18 and HOU by 14.
Side by side
| SEA | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 2-5 |
| 24.0 13 | Points per game | 23.6 15 |
| 17.9 4 | Points allowed | 24.3 19 |
| -0.05 24 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 12 |
| -0.13 2 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 18 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 7.4% 8 | Sacks per dropback | 7.9% 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-20 | 2025 Wk 7 | HOU 19 @ SEA 27 | SEA | SEA -3 |
| 2021-12-12 | 2021 Wk 14 | SEA 33 @ HOU 13 | SEA | SEA -10 |
| 2017-10-29 | 2017 Wk 8 | HOU 38 @ SEA 41 | SEA | SEA -6 |
| 2013-09-29 | 2013 Wk 4 | SEA 23 @ HOU 20 | SEA | SEA -1 |
| 2009-12-13 | 2009 Wk 14 | SEA 7 @ HOU 34 | HOU | HOU -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away